基于spss的多元回归分析模型选取的应用统计学本科毕业论文

毕 业 论 文

题 目 基于SPSS的多元回归分析模型选取的应用

基于SPSS的多元回归分析模型选取的应用

摘 要

本文不仅对于复杂的统计计算通过常用的计算机应用软件SPSS来实现，同时通过对两组数据的实证分析，来研究统计学中多元回归分析中的变量选取，让大家对统计学中的多元回归分析中模型的选取以及变量的选取和操作方法有更深层次的了解. 一组数据是对于淘宝交易额的未来发展趋势的研究，一组数据时对于我国财政收入的研究. 本文通过两个实证即淘宝交易额研究和财政收入研究从不同程度上对非线性回归模型和变量选取的研究运用通俗的语言和浅显的描述将SPSS在多元回归分析中的统计分析方法呈现在大家面前，让大家对多元回归分析以及SPSS软件都可以有更深一步的了解. 通过SPSS软件对数据进行分析，对数据进行处理的方法进行总结，找出SPSS对于数据处理和分析的优缺点，最后得在对变量的选取和软件的操作提出建议.

关键词：统计学，SPSS，变量选取，多元回归分析

Abstract

This article not only for complex statistical calculations done by the commonly used computer application software of SPSS, through the empirical analysis of the two groups of data at the same time, to study the statistics of the variables in the multivariate regression analysis, let everybody in the multiple regression analysis of statistical model selection as well as the selection of variables and operation methods have a deeper understanding. Is a set of data for the future development trend of research taobao transactions, a set of data for the research of our country's fiscal revenue. In this paper, through two empirical taobao transactions and fiscal revenue research from different degree of the study of nonlinear regression model and variable selection using a common language and plain the SPSS statistical analysis method in multiple regression analysis of present in front of everyone, let everyone to multiple regression analysis and SPSS software can have a deeper understanding. Through SPSS software to analyze data, and summarizes method of data processing, find out the advantages and disadvantages of SPSS for data processing and analysis, finally had to put forward the proposal to the operation of the selection of variables and software.

Keywords: Statistical, SPSS, The selection of variables, multiple regression analysis

目 录

第一章 引 言 ................................................................................................................. 3 第二章 多元回归模型的选取 ....................................................................................... 4

2.1 多元回归分析概述 ............................................................................................. 4 2.2 相关系数概述 ..................................................................................................... 5 2.3 非线性回归模型概述 ......................................................................................... 5 2.4 多元线性回归模型自变量的选取 ..................................................................... 6 第三章 非线性回归模型案例：淘宝交易额模型的研究 ..................... 7

3.1 回归模型变量的确定 ......................................................................................... 7 3.1.1 数据来源 .................................................................................................... 7 3.1.2 复相关系数 ................................................................................................ 8 3.1.3 散点图看线性关系 .................................................................................... 9 3.1.4 回归分析看拟合度 .................................................................................. 11 3.1.5 确定回归模型变量 .................................................................................. 11 3.2 调整后的变量的相关分析 ............................................................................... 12 3.2.1 散点图 ...................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 计算相关系数 .......................................................................................... 14 3.3 多元线性回归分析 ........................................................................................... 16 3.4 小 结 ................................................................................................................. 18 第四章 线性回归分析变量选取案例：财政收入模型的研究 ................ 18

4.1 数据来源及变量选取 ....................................................................................... 18 4.2 相关分析 ........................................................................................................... 20 4.2.1 散点图 ...................................................................................................... 20 4.2.2 计算相关系数 .......................................................................................... 21 4.3 线性回归分析 ................................................................................................... 24 4.4 逐步回归 ........................................................................................................... 26 4.5 小 结 ................................................................................................................. 27 第五章 总 结 ....................................................... 28 参考文献 ........................................................... 30