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difficult when anxiety about other forms of risk is concerned, because with many risks, the situation
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is not as simple.
2 对生活中风险的担忧与疑病症有相似之处;二者的恐惧或忧虑皆起因于信息不全面。但二者之间也存在一个明显的差别。疑病症患者通常可以求助于医生,以便澄清疑虑——要么你得了你所怀疑的疾病,要么你没得。但当涉及到其它形式的风险时,事情就要困难得多,因为对许多风险来说,情况并不那么简单。
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[3] Risks are almost always a matter of probability rather than certainty.You may ask, \I wear a seat belt?\head-on(正面相撞) collision(碰撞), of course. But what if you get hit from the side and end up trapped inside the vehicle(车辆), unable to escape because of a damaged seat belt mechanism(装置)? So does this mean that you should spend the extra money for an
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air bag? Again, in head-on collisions, it may well save your life. But what if the bag
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accidentally inflates(膨胀) while you are driving down the highway, thus causing an accident that
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would never have occurred otherwise?
3 风险几乎总是一个可能性的问题而无确定性可言。你也许会问:“我该不该系安全带?”如果你坐的车要与其它车正面相撞,那当然该系安全带。倘若你的车侧面被撞,结果你被困在车里,又因安全带装置遭破坏而无法挣脱,那怎么办呢?这是否意味着你该再花些钱在车内安一个保险气袋呢?同样,在正面相撞的情况下,保险气袋完全可以救你一命。但是,万一正当你在高速公路上开车时,保险气袋突然意外充气膨胀,从而导致了本来绝不会发生的事故,那又该如何是好?
[4] All of this is another way of saying that nothing we do is completely safe.There are risks, often potentially serious ones, associated with every hobby we have, every job we take, every food we eat—in other words, with every action. But the fact that there are risks associated with everything we are going to do does not, or should not, reduce us to trembling(战战兢兢的) neurotics(神经病患者). Some actions are riskier than others. The point is to inform ourselves about the relevant(相关的) risks and then
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act accordingly(相应地).
4 上面说的这一切,只是从另一角度说明我们所做的事没有一件是百分之百安全的。有些风险——常常是潜在的重大风险——与我们的每个业余爱好、所做的每项工作、所吃的每种食物有关,换句话说,与所进行的任何活动有关。但我们又不能,也不该因危险存在于我们将要做的每件事,而变成战战兢兢的神经症患者。有些活动是比其它活动更危险。关键在于要让自己了解相应的风险,然后相机行事。
[5] For example, larger cars are generally safer than small ones in collisions.But how much safer? The answer is that you are roughly(大致) twice as likely to die in a serious crash in a small car than in a large one. Yet larger cars generally cost more than small ones (and also use more gas, thus increasing the environmental risks!), so how do we decide when the reduced risks are worth the added costs?The ultimate(最*的,根本的) risk avoider might, for instance, buy a tank or an armored(装甲的) car, thus minimizing the risk of death or injury in a collision. But is the added cost and inconvenience worth the difference in price, even supposing you could afford it?
5 例如,两车相撞时,大车总的说来要比小车安全些。可究竟能安全多少呢?答案是这样:在一起严重的车祸中坐小车丧生的可能性是坐大车的两倍左右。然而,大车通常比小车贵(并且消耗更多的汽油,由此给环境带来了更大的风险!)。那么我们该怎样确定什么时候值得为降低风险增加花费呢?例如,避免风险最保险的做法也许是去买一辆坦克或装甲车,从而把撞车时死亡或受伤的风险降到最小。然而,即便你买得起,这笔额外的费用以及忍受坦克或装甲车所带来的不便是否值得呢?
[6] We cannot begin to answer such questions until we have a feel for the level of risks in question. So how do we measure the level of a risk? Some people seem to think that the answer is a simple number. We know, for instance, that about 25,000 people per year die in automobile accidents. By contrast, only about 300 die per year in mine accidents and disasters. Does that mean that riding in a car is much riskier than mining? Not necessarily. The fact is that some 200 million Americans regularly ride in automobiles in the United States every year; perhaps 700,000 are involved in mining. The relevant figure that we need to assess(评估) a risk is a ratio(比例) or fraction(分数). The numerator(分子) of the fraction tells us how many people were killed or harmed as the result of a particular activity over a certain period of time; the denominator(分母) tells us how many people were involved in that activity during
that time. All risk levels are thus ratios or fractions, with values between 0 (no risk) and 1 (totally risky).
6 在我们尚不知所涉及的风险程度之前,我们还无法回答这些问题。那么,我们该如何去衡量风险程度呢?有些人似乎认为答案只不过是一个简单的数字。例如,我们知道每年大约有25,000 人死于车祸。相比之下,每年只有大约300人死于矿山事故和灾难。这难道就意味着乘坐汽车要比采矿危险得多吗?未必。事实是,在美国每年大约有两亿人经常性地以车代步;而大概只有70万人从事采矿作业。我们评估一种风险时,所需要的有关数字是一个比率或分数。该分数的分子告诉我们在某个特定时期由于从事某种特定活动而丧生或受伤的人数;其分母告诉我们在这一时期从事这种活动的总人数。这样,所有的风险程度都是由比率或分数表示,其大小介于0(无风险)到1(完全风险)之间。
[7] By reducing all risks to ratios or fractions of this sort, we can begin to compare different sorts of risks—like mining versus(与?相对) riding in a car. The larger this ratio, that is, the closer it is to 1, the riskier the activity in question. In the case just discussed, we would find the relative safety of car travel and coal mining by dividing the numbers of lives lost in each by the number of people participating in each. Here, it is clear that the riskiness of traveling by car is about 1 death per 10,000 passengers; with mining, the risk level is about 4 deaths per 10,000 miners. So although far more people are killed in car accidents than in mining, the latter turns out to be four times riskier than the former. Those ratios enable us to compare the risks of activities or situations as different as apples
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and oranges.If you are opposed to risks, you will want to choose your activities by focusing on the small-ratio exposures(暴露). If you are reckless(无所畏惧,不顾后果的), then you are not likely to be afraid of higher ratios unless they get uncomfortably large.
7 通过把所有风险都简化为这种比率或分数,我们便可以开始比较不同种类的风险,如比较采矿与乘坐汽车。这个比率越大,也就是说它越接近1,那么有关活动的风险就越大。在刚才讨论的例子中,我们可以用每一活动中死亡的人数除以参与该活动的总人数,从而找出汽车旅行与采煤的相对安全性。此处,我们可以很清楚地看到,乘坐汽车旅行的风险是每一万人中大约有一人丧生;而就采矿而言,其危险程度是每一万矿工中大约有四人死亡。所以,尽管在车祸中丧生的人远比采矿要多,其实后者的风险是前者的四倍。这些比率使我们能够对毫不相干的活动或情形的危险性加以比较,即便差别如苹果与橘子那样大也能比较。如果你反对冒险,你就会选择风险比率较小的活动。如果你无所畏惧,那么你往往会对高比率不太在乎,除非它们大得令人难以承受。
[8] Once we understand that risk can never be totally eliminated from any situation and that, therefore, nothing is completely safe, we will then see that the issue is not one of avoiding risks altogether but rather one of managing risks in a sensible way. Risk management requires two things: common sense and information about the character(性质) and degree(程度) of the risks we may be running. (963 words) 8 我们一旦明白了风险是永远无法从任何情况中完全去除的,因而就没有绝对安全的事,我们也就会明白问题的关键不是要彻底避免风险,而是要理智地管理风险。风险管理需要两大要素:常识以及与我们可能要承担的风险的性质和程度相关的信息。
unit 7
永远不会听到的毕业典礼演说
We the faculty take no pride in our educational achievement with you. We have prepared you for a world that does not exist, indeed, that cannot exist. You have spent four years supposing that failure leaves
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no record. You have learned at Brown that when your work goes poorly, the painless solution is to drop
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out. But starting now, in the world to which you go, failure marks you. Confronting(面对,对抗)
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difficulty by quitting leaves you changed. Outside Brown, quitters are no heroes.
1 我们这些教师对于在你们身上取得的教育成就一点都不感到自豪。我们培养你们去适应的是一个根本不存在的世界——事实上也是不可能存在的。在这里度过的四年时间里,你们一直以为失败是不会留下任何记录的。要是学得不好,一个最省事的办法就是中途退出(不修这门课),在布朗大学你们学会了这一点。但是,从现在开始,在你们要涉足的世界里,失败是要给你留下疤痕的。知难而退也会使你变成另一个人。走出布朗,知难而退的人绝不是英雄。
[2] With us you could argue about why your errors were not errors, why mediocre(平凡的) work really
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was excellent, why you could take pride in routine and slipshod(草率的,普通的) presentation. Most
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of you, after all, can look back on honor gradesfor most of what you have done. So, here grades can have meant little in distinguishing the excellent from the ordinary. But tomorrow, in the world to which
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you go, you had better not defend(辩护) errors but learn from them. You will be ill-advised(不
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明智的) to demand praise for what does not deserve it, and abuse those who do not give it.
2 你们可以跟我们争辩,说服我们为什么你们的错误不是错误,为什么平庸的作业是优秀的,为什么你们会对普普通通并不出色的课堂报告感到骄傲。回想一下,毕竟你们中的大多数人在你们所学的大部分课程中都得了高分。因此,在这里分数并不能作为区分优秀学生与学业平平的学生的依据。但是,今后,在你们所要去的世界里,你们最好不要为自己的错误辩护,而应该从中吸取教训。假如你们要求得到你们不该得到的表扬,诋毁那些不给你们表扬的人,这是不明智的做法。
[3] For years we created an altogether forgiving world, in which whatever slight effort you gave was all that was demanded. When you did not keep appointments, we made new ones. When your work came in beyond the deadline, we pretended not to care.
3 多年来,我们创造了一个完全宽容的世界。这里所要求于你们的仅仅是一点微不足道的努力。当你们没有按约定的时间赴约时,我们就再约时间。当你们没有按期交作业时,我们装作不在乎。
[4] Worse still, when you were boring, we acted as if you were saying something important. When you
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were garrulous(唠叨的) and talked to hear yourselves talk, we listened as if it mattered.When you
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tossed on our desks writing upon which you had not labored, we read it and even responded, as though you earned a response. When you were dull, we pretended you were smart. When you were
predictable,unimaginative and routine(日常的,平淡的), we listened as if to new and wonderful things. When you demanded free lunch, we served it. And all this why?
4 更糟糕的是,当你们的言谈枯燥无味时,我们却装作你们说的是重要的事情;当你们喋喋不休、不知所云时,我们认真倾听,似乎你们说的东西事关重大;当你们把根本没有花心思写的作业扔到我们桌上时,我们不仅拜读,甚至批改给评语,好像值得为你们这样做似的。当你们犯傻时,我们装作你们聪明过人;当你们老生常谈、毫无想象力、平平淡淡时,我们却装作像在听什么美妙绝伦的新鲜事情一样;当你们要不劳而获时,我们拱手奉上。所有这一切究竟是为了什么?
[5] Despite your fantasies, it was not even that we wanted to be liked by you. It was that we did not want to be bothered, and the easy way out was pretense: smiles and easy Bs.
5 对这一切尽管你们可以想入非非,但我们决不是因为想要讨你们的欢心,而是因为我们不想让你们罗唆。一个简单的办法就是作假:微笑,让你们轻轻松松都得B。 [6] It is conventional to quote(引用) in addresses(演讲) such as these. Let me quote someone you've never heard of: Professor Carter A. Daniel, Rutgers University:\has spoiled you by reading papers that don't deserve to be read, listening to comments that don't deserve a hearing, paying attention even to the lazy, ill-informed and rude. We had to do it, for the sake of education. But nobody will ever do it again. College has deprived you of adequate(充足的) preparation for the last 50 years. It has
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failed you by being easy, free, forgiving, attentive, comfortable, interesting, unchallenging fun. Good luck tomorrow.\
6 在这一类的演说中人们往往习惯于引用,在此让我来引用一个你们从来没有听说过的人的话,这个人是拉特格斯大学的卡特?A.丹尼尔教授。他说: “大学毁了你们,让你们阅读那些不值得一读的论文,听那些不值得一听的评论,甚至要去尊重那些无所事事、孤陋寡闻、极不文明的人。为了教育,我们过去不得不这样做,但是今后不会有人再这样做了。在过去的50年中,大学使你们丧失了得到充分培养的机会。由于大学成了一个轻松、自由、包容、体贴、舒适、充满乐趣、好玩的地方,它没有对你们尽到责任。但愿你们今后好运。”
[7] That is why, on this commencement day, we have nothing in which to take much pride.
7 这就是为什么,在今天进行毕业典礼之际,我们没有任何可引以自豪的东西。
[8] Oh, yes, there is one more thing. Try not to act toward your co-workers and bosses as you have acted toward us. I mean, when they give you what you want but have not earned, don't abuse them, insult them, act
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out with them your parlous(危险的,糟糕的) relationships with your parents. This too we have
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tolerated. It was, as I said, not to be liked. Few professors actually care whether or not they are
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liked by peer-paralyzed(同龄人) adolescents, fools so shallow(肤浅的) as to imagine professors
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care not about education but about popularity. It was, again, to be rid of you.So go, unlearn(忘
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却) the lies we taught you. To life! (585 words)
8 哦,对了,还有一点。尽量不要像对待我们那样去对待你们的同事和老板。我的意思是,当他们把你们想要但不是你们应得的东西给了你们时,要善待他们,不要侮辱他们,不要在他们身上重演你们与父母之间的那种糟糕的关系。这一切,我们也都忍受了。正如我刚才所说的,这不是为了讨你们的欢心。有一些年轻人只能在同龄人的眼中找到自我,是一些愚昧无知的人,竟然肤浅到以为教授们关心的不是教育,而是自己的人缘。实际上,很少有教授在乎这类年轻人是否喜欢他们。我们容忍这一切,只是为了摆脱你们。摒弃我们在教学中给你们造成的这些假象,投身到真实的生活中去吧。
大学:一个宽恕一切的世界吗?
1 In \Commencement Speech You'll Never Hear\Jacob Neusner argues that we have been made to believe, according to our college experience, that \achieved. It seems to Neusner that college is not a good preparatory school for life because it is making us ready \l 在“永远不会听到的毕业典礼演说”中,雅各布?诺伊斯纳认为,大学经历使得我们认为:“失败不会留下任何记录”(第一段),而成绩是很容易取得的。在诺伊斯纳看来,大学并不是一所很好的着眼于将来生活的预备学校,因为它为一个“根本就不存在的世界”而培养我们。
2 There's no doubt that Neusner should have taken a closer look at what college life is really like before formulating(发表,表示) such a strong opinion about it. He is completely ignoring all the pressures and hard times students go through to make it at college. It is not the way he describes it at all. 2 毫无疑问,诺伊斯纳在发表这么强烈的论点之前,该对大学生活的实际情况做更进一步的审视。他完全无视学生们为了学业成功而经受的一切压力与艰辛。大学生活根本就不是他所描绘的那样。
3 Is college not preparing us for real life, as Neusner puts it? Is what we are experiencing something not useful to learn for the real world? These are questions that pop into my mind when I think about what Neusner says. I think that he is very wrong. The college years, for many of us, are when we start to be independent, make crucial decisions on our own, and become responsible for them. At college, we must learn to budget our time (and money!) and to be tolerant (otherwise we wouldn't survive in a crowded triple room!). We meet people from different parts of the world that broaden our view of the world itself and help us understand each other better. If these things are not useful for the real world, then I don't know what could be.
3 大学难道真的像诺伊斯纳所说的那样,没有让我们为现实生活作准备吗?我们所经历的一切难道无助于我们了解现实世界吗?这些问题都是在思考诺伊斯纳所说的话时涌现到我的脑海中的。我认为他完全错了。对我们许多人来说,大学时代正是我们开始独立,自己做重要决定,并对这些决定负责的时代。在大学里,我们必须学会计划时间(还包括计划用钱!),学会容忍(否则,住在一个拥挤的三人间里,我们会无法过下去的)。我们与来自世界各地的人
相识,开阔了我们的视野,使我们彼此加深了解。如果这些对现实世界是没用的,那我可不知道什么才是有用的。 4 Neusner believes that in college we are trained to think that \can supposedly get away with mistakes easily. I have news for him. If you fail a test, you can't take it again, or the teacher won't erase the grade even if he thinks you will hate him for the rest of your life. If you drop out of a class, next semester you will have to take more courses. If you get low grades,
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