长江水质的评价和预测的论文

4．1、2、3类水y123的预测（百分比） 序号 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 干流 统计值 90.4000 99.2000 86.7000 100.0000 87.2000 74.5000 67.7000 68.8000 93.8000 67.5000 模型计算值y123(k) 90.4000 96.2058 92.5463 89.0260 85.6396 82.3820 79.2483 76.2338 73.3340 70.5444 67.8610 66.2136 62.5693 63.1522 63.1169 61.2694 57.4791 52.7429 54.6619 52.7516 ?全流域 统计值 93.1000 85.3000 80.7000 88.4000 80.2000 74.0000 73.7000 76.7000 77.5000 68.0000 模型计算值y123(k) 93.1000 85.6996 83.7427 81.8306 79.9621 78.1363 76.3521 74.6088 72.9052 71.2405 69.6138 67.9003 65.3197 65.0212 64.0009 61.9120 59.6219 58.2193 57.8577 56.0467 ?

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5．6类水y6的预测（百分比）

干流 序号 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 统计值 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.8000 8.7000 0 9.0000

全流域 ?模型计算值y6(k) 0 0 0 0 1.4295 3.1039 4.4605 5.4803 6.1412 6.4178 6.2805 6.9450 7.5023 7.6670 7.5372 6.3676 5.8888 6.1920 4.0102 3.1772 统计值 0 3.1000 3.4000 1.6000 4.1000 5.3000 6.8000 10.0000 10.3000 11.3000 模型计算值y6(k) 0.0000 0.9376 2.3965 3.7919 5.1246 6.3945 7.6022 8.7474 9.8307 10.8520 11.8112 13.3542 14.9854 15.9496 17.0118 17.7550 18.4763 9.5302 20.4589 21.3070 ? - 14 -

灰色预测的关联分析：

关联度的检验计算值R>0.5时，模型精度合格，R值愈大说明模型精度愈高，按下式计算关联度R

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?(0)Dmin?minx(0)k(k)?x(k)?(0)D0)max?minx(k(k)?x(k)

LDmin??Dmaxk?x(0)?(0)(k)?x(k)??DmaxR?1NN?Lk

K?1Dmin=min( 0 6.1910 0.9355 6.7785 15.5820 4.7175 2.5384 0.3175)=0

Dmax=max(0 6.1910 0.9355 6.7785 15.5820 4.7175 2.5384 0.3175)=15.5820

Lk=1.0000 0.7157 0.9434 0.6969 0.9184 0.5609 0.5000 0.7676 0.8599 0.9800 R= 0.7943

长江全流域水文年4,5类水质百分比之和关联分析

Dmin=min( 0.0000 1.7628 2.0392 4.3775 0.7867 5.5308 3.4543 3.4438 5.0641 2.7925)=0

Dmax=max(0.0000 1.7628 2.0392 4.3775 0.7867 5.5308 3.4543 3.4438 5.0641 2.7925)=5.5308

Lk=1.0000 0.7583 0.7306 0.5582 0.8755 0.5000 0.6156 0.6163 0.5220 0.6645 R=0.6841

长江全流域水文年1,2,3类水质百分比之和关联分析

Dmin=min(0.0000 0.3996 3.0427 6.5694 0.2379 4.1363 2.6521 2.0912 4.5948 3.2405)=0

Dmax=max(0.0000 0.3996 3.0427 6.5694 0.2379 4.1363 2.6521 2.0912 4.5948 3.2405)=6.5694

Lk=1.0000 0.9427 0.6834 0.5000 0.9651 0.6136 0.7124 0.7585 0.5884 0.6697 R=0.7434

长江全流域水文年第6类水质百分比关联分析

Dmin=min(0.0000 2.1624 1.0035 2.1919 1.0246 1.0945 0.8022 1.2526 0.4693 0.4480)=0

Dmax=max(0.0000 2.1624 1.0035 2.1919 1.0246 1.0945 0.8022 1.2526 0.4693 0.4480)=2.1919

Lk=1.0000 0.5034 0.6860 0.5000 0.6815 0.6670 0.7321 0.6363 0.8237 0.8303 R= 0.7060

长江干流水文年第6类水质百分比关联分析

Dmin=min(0 0 0 0 1.3395 3.2197 6.1412 2.5822)=0

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1.3839 1.4295 12.1990 3.1039 12.1990 1.3839