威学一百雅思考试2018年6月23日内容解析

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climate data, researchers can reveal how, for example, changes in temperature affect the arrived of spring, allowing ecologists to make improved predictions about the impact of climate change. A small band of researchers is combing through hundreds of years of records taken by thousands of amateur naturalists. And more systematic projects have also started up, producing on overwhelming response. \amount of interest is almost frightening,\says Sparks, a climate researcher at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Monks Wood, Cambridgeshire.

C

Sparks became aware of the army of \ them, when a retiring colleague gave him the Marsham records. He now spends much of his time following leads from one historical data set to another. As news of his quest spreads, people tip him off to other historical records, and more amateur phenologists come out of their closets. The British devotion to recording and collecting makes his job easier - one man from: Kent sent him 30 years' worth of kitchen calendar, on which he had noted the date that his neighbour's magnolia tree flowered.

D

Other researchers have unearthed data from equally odd sources. Rafe Sargarin recently studied records of a betting contest in which participants attempt to guess the exact time at which a specially erected wooden tripod will fall through the surface of a thawing river. The competition has taken place annually on the Tenana River in Alaska since 1917, and analysis of the results showed that the thaw now arrives five days earlier than it did when the contest began.

E

Overall, Such records have helped to show that, compared with 20 years ago, a raft of natural events now occur earlier across much of the northern hemisphere, from the opening of leaves to the return of birds from migration and the emergence of butterflies from hibernation . The data can also hint at how nature will change in the future. Together with models of climate change, amateurs' records could help guide conservation. Terry Root, an ecologist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, has collected birdwatchers' counts of wildfowl taken between 1955 and 19% on seasonal ponds in the American. Midwest and combined them with climate data and models of future warming. Her analysis shows that the increased droughts that the models predict could halve the breeding populations at the ponds. \number of waterfowl in North America will most probably drop significantly with global warming,\

F

But not all professionals are happy to use amateur data. \ scientists won't touch them, they say they're too full of problems,\ says Root. Because different observers can have different ideas of what constitutes, for example, an open snowdrop. The biggest concern with ad hoc observations is how carefully and systematically they were taken,\says Mark Schwartz of the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, who studies the interactions between

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plants and climate. \ precisely what a person's been observing - if they just say 'I noted when the leaves came out', it might not be that useful.\of autumn can be particularly problematic because deciding when leaves change color is a more subjective process than noting when they appear.

G

Overall, most phenologists are positive about the contribution that amateurs can make. \ natural world,\Sagarin. But the professionals also acknowledge the need for careful quality control. Root, for example, tries to gauge the quality of an amateur archive by interviewing its collector. \always have to worry things as trivial as vacations can affect measurement. I disregard a lot of records because they're not rigorous enough,\she says. Others suggest that the right statistics can iron out some of the problems with amateur data. Together with colleagues at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, environmental scientist Arnold van Vliet is developing statistical techniques to account for the uncertainty in amateur phenological data. With the enthusiasm of amateur phenologists evident from past records, professional researchers are now trying to create standardized recording schemes for future efforts. They hope that well-designed studies will generate a volume of observations: large enough to drown out the idiosyncrasies of individual recorders. The data are cheap to collect, and can provide breadth in space, time and range of species. \very difficult to collect data on a large geographical scale without enlisting an army of observers,\

H

Phenology also helps to drive home messages about climate change. \the public understand these records, they accept them,\says Sparks. It can also illustrate potentially unpleasant consequences, he adds, such as the finding that more rat infestations are reported to local councils in warmer years. And getting people involved is great for public relations. \ hobby can be used for something scientific -it empowers them,\ Root.

Questions 14-19

The reading Passage has seven paragraphs A-H

Which paragraph contains the following information?

Write the correct letter A-H, in boxes 27-33 on your answer sheet 14. Definition of Phenology introduced

15. How Sparks first became aware of amateur records

16. Records of a competition providing clues for climate change 17. A description of using amateur records to make predictions 18. How people reacted to their involvement in data collection

19. A description of a very old record compiled by generations of amateur naturalists

Questions 20-22

Complete the sentences below with NO MORE THAN TWO WORDS from the Reading

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Passage for each answer. Write your answers in boxes 34-36 on your answer sheet.

20. In Waiter Coates' records, there are plenty of information of . 21. Robert Marsham is well-known for noting animals and plants' .

22. The number of waterfowl in North America decreases because of increased according to some phenologists.

Questions 23-26

Choose the correct letter, A, B, C, or D.

Write your answers in boxes 37-40 on your answer sheet 23 Why do a lot of scientists question the amateurs’ data? A. Data collection is not professional B. Amateur observers are careless.

C. Amateur data is not reliable sometimes. D. They have one-sided work experience

24 Example of leaves Mark Schwartz used to explain that? A. Amateur records arc not reliable at all. B. Amateur records arc not well organized. C. Some details are very difficult to notice. D. Valuable information is accurate one.

25 What suggestion of scientists for the usage of amateur data? A. Use modified and better approaches. B. Only Observation data is valuable.

C. Use original materials instead of changed ones. D. Method of data collection is the most important.

26 What's the implication of phenology for ordinary people? A. It enriches the knowledge of the public.

B. It improves ordinary people's relations with scientists. C. It encourages people to collect more animal information. D. It arouses public awareness about climate change.

Passage 3：

题目：Optimistic Research乐观性研究 题型：5配对题+5选择题+4判断题 题号：旧题

文章大意：人们更倾向于想象美好的未来，乐观的情况更多于悲观的情况，文中讲到了一个实验。

参考答案： 27-31) 配对题

27. H．是对all social groups来说 28. F． 29. A．

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30. C．work时间 31. E．离婚概率

31-36) 配对题 32. A． 33. C． 34. A． 35. A． 36. C．

37-40) 判断题 37. NOT GIVEN． 38. NO． 39. NO． 40. YES．

参考文章：暂无 Optimism and Health

Mindset (心态) is all. How you start the year will set the template for 2009, and two scientifically backed character traits hold the key: optimism and resilience (if the prospect leaves you feeling pessimistically spineless, the good news is that you can significantly boost both of these qualities).

A

Faced with 12 months of plummeting economics and rising human distress, staunchly maintaining a rosy view might seem deucedly Pollyannaish. But here we encounter the optimism paradox. As Brice Pitt, an emeritus professor of the psychiatry of old age at Imperial College, London, told me: optimists are unrealistic. Depressive people see things as they really are, but that is a disadvantage from an evolutionary point of view. Optimism is a piece of evolutionary equipment that carried us through millennia of setbacks.

BIt has been known that optimistic has something to do with the long life, and optimists have plenty to be happy about. In other words, if you can convince yourself that things will get better, the odds of it happening will improve - because you keep on playing the game. In this light, optimism \psychology professor and author of Learned Optimism. The research shows that when times get tough, optimists do better than pessimists - they succeed better at work, respond better to stress, suffer fewer depressive episodes and achieve more personal goals.

CStudies also show that belief can help with the financial pinch. Chad Wallens, a social forecaster at the Henley Centre who surveyed middle-class Britons’ beliefs about income, has found that “he people who feel wealthiest, and those who feel poorest, actually have almost the same amount of money at their disposal. Their attitudes and behaviour patterns, however, are different from one another.”

DOptimists have something else to be cheerful about – in general, they are more robust. For example, a study of 660 volunteers by the psychologist Dr Becca Levy, found that thinking positively adds an average of 7 years to your life. Other American research claims to have