微观经济学 有关鸡蛋价格的分析

The demand and supply changes of eggs

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2012年2季度全国鸡蛋价格行情分析及预测

关键词：鸡蛋价格.分析及预测 浏览次数：348 发布时间：2012-04-23

www.hnai.gov.cn 湖南省乡镇企业局

三农直通车综合报道：4月15日至4月22日期间，全国整体的鸡蛋价格呈现出小幅震荡，涨跌互现的态势。

2010年下半年开始到2011年12月，鸡蛋价格一路走高，达到历史最高点。2011年三、四季度，鸡蛋始终保持在4元以上较高价位，截至2011年12月，蛋鸡养殖户的盈利时间达19个月左右。就这样2011年较好的蛋鸡市场行直接就刺激了养殖户的增加，导致补栏量增加、存栏数量多。表现为中级鸡苗价格一直呈上升趋势，个别种鸡户鸡苗供不应求。而2011年下半年补栏的蛋鸡将在2012年上半年进入产蛋的高峰期，于是市场上蛋鸡存栏量和产蛋量将会维持在较高水平，鸡蛋供应充足。

由于鸡蛋节后消费量相对比较稳定，加之蛋鸡生产周期相对较长，而且二季度气候转暖，蛋鸡产蛋率将会有所提高，所以预计鸡蛋价格近期难以上涨，仍将维持低位徘徊态势。目前产区和销区鸡蛋走货速度都较为缓慢，蛋价上涨缺乏有力支撑。

虽然鸡蛋消费已逐渐走出了节后消费的真空期，而较低的价格也能为市民所接受，市场需求开始缓慢回升；而且“五一”黄金消费期的临近，许多地方开始对鸡蛋进行储备而导致外调增多；还有前期鸡蛋价格最低时，养鸡户补栏意愿很差，甚至有部分养鸡户为了降低损失已经淘汰了一些产蛋率不高的蛋鸡，导致蛋鸡存栏有所下降等因素会影响市场鸡蛋价格行情。

但是，即便消费拉动需求，近期鸡蛋价格也仅可能是在小范围内有所回升，但仍不能改变鸡蛋价格低迷的现状。

不过，依据往年的经验，鸡蛋价格通常会在麦收前后有上好的表现。因此，预计随着时间的推移，鸡蛋价格或许会有逐步走高的趋势，真正的鸡蛋价格上涨可能要在9、10月份。

作者：神农网 编辑：黄建农 文章来源：神农网

分析： Eggs are essential things of our daily life. Many factors can effect the demand and supply of eggs, such as income, number of buyers, and tastes. These factors can effect the demand of eggs. Other factors, such as number of sellers, technology and input prices, can effect the supply of eggs. We will analyze these changes. Demand

Number of eggs Now, with the coming of Mid-Autumn Day, we have large demand of moon cake. Eggs are the important material to moon cake, so the demand of eggs will increase.

Income With the improvement of economy , people’s income also increase. So people can use much more money to buy eggs. As a result, the demand of eggs will increase.

Tastes The most obvious determinant of demand is our tastes. Eggs are very nutritious to our body. Many people want to eat more eggs. So the demand of eggs will increase. But , there are many people don’t like the taste of eggs, so they will discrease the quantity of eggs. As a result, the demand of eggs will discrease. Supply

Number of sellers Because of the high price of eggs, many people want to get benefit from this, so there will be more people taking part in this activity. As a result, the supply of eggs will increase.

Input prices Corn is the main raw materials of chicken, nowadays, with the increasing of the corn’ price, many farms and enterprise will discrease the quantity of chicken, as a result, the supply of eggs will discrease. Technology with the development of technology, people know much more knowledge of how to improve the survival rate of chicken, and how to improve the production of eggs. So the supply of eggs will increase.