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Wen crackdown hits Chinese stocks
By Simon Rabinovitch in Beijing
Chinese stocks had their worst day of 2012 after Premier Wen Jiabao said the
government would maintain its crackdown on property speculation because house prices were still too high.
Many investors have been banking on an imminent relaxation in Beijing’s two-year property tightening campaign, but Premier Wen cast doubt on those expectations. In unusually blunt language, his comments seemed calculated to deliver a stern rebuke to real estate developers and local officials who have been increasingly vocal in calling for a policy relaxation.
“I can clearly tell everyone now. Housing prices are still far, far from returning to a reasonable level. So we cannot relax the policy controls. If we relax them, it will be a waste of our efforts and the market will be thrown into chaos,” he said in a news conference at the end of China’s annual parliamentary meeting.
Chinese stocks, which had been on track for a small daily gain, fell sharply after Premier Wen spoke. The Shanghai Composite ended down 2.6 per cent, its steepest decline in more than three months. A sub-index of shares in property developers fell nearly 4 per cent, the most in half a year.
Du Jinsong, a property analyst with Credit Suisse, said: “It is all about expectations. The market seemed to believe that the government was going to loosen a little bit after the national parliament, but it will be disappointed. The language used by Premier Wen is even tougher than before.”
Mr Du recommended that investors should be “underweight” on Chinese property stocks, though he declined to give a specific forecast. “Directionally, the risk is definitely on the downside,” he said.
Concerned that a property bubble might endanger the economy and fuel social unrest, the government has used a battery of measures, including restrictions on the number of homes people can buy, to cooling prices over the past two years.
After falling for much of last year, shares in Chinese developers listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong have soared this year, some climbing by as much as 70 per cent. This rally was driven by the belief that the government would soon be able to ease up, with property prices now beginning to fall across the nation.
Premier Wen said that his main concern was the “long-term health and stable
development” of the real estate sector. While the “hand of the market” had an important role to play in bringing about that outcome, the “hand of the government” was needed as a stabilising force, he said. 译文：
温家宝：中国不会放松房地产调控
英国《金融时报》 欧阳德 北京报道
字号 背景
英文对照评论打印电邮收藏
昨日，中国股市迎来了进入2012年之后最糟糕的一天。中国总理温家宝昨日表示，由于房价仍然很高，政府将继续打击房地产投机活动。
许多投资者都指望，在收紧房地产市场两年之后，中央政府即将放宽房地产政策。但温家宝的表态，令人们对这一期待产生了疑问。他在表态中使用了非常直白的措辞，似乎是刻意对房地产开发商和地方官员发出严厉指责，因为他们呼吁中央政府放宽政策的呼声越来越大。
温家宝在人大会议结束后举行的新闻发布会上表示，“现在我可以明确地告诉大家，房价还远远没有回到合理价位。因此，调控不能放松。如果放松，将前功尽弃，而且会造成房地产市场的混乱。
温家宝讲话结束后，曾连日小幅上涨的中国股市出现大幅下跌。上证综指全天下跌2.6%，创下3个多月来最大跌幅。而地产类分类指数下跌近4%，创下半年之内最大跌幅。 瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)房地产分析师杜劲松表示：“股指走向完全取决于期望值。市场原以为政府会在人大会议之后略微放宽政策，但结果将非常失望。温家宝总理的措辞甚至比以往还要严厉。”
杜劲松建议，投资者应当降低中国地产股配置的“权重”，但他没有给出具体的预测。他表示，“从方向上来看，地产股绝对存在着下行风险。”
由于担心房地产泡沫破灭可能危及经济并助长社会不安定局面，在过去两年里，中国政府出台了一连串旨在为房价降温的措施，其中包括限制购房套数。
去年大部分时间，在上海和香港上市的中国地产股都在下跌，但进入今年以来开始飙升，有些涨幅竟高达70%。地产股出现此番涨势，是因为市场相信，随着全国房价开始回落，政府很快就会放宽政策了。
温家宝表示，他最关心的问题是房地产行业的“长期健康和稳定发展”。尽管“市场这只手”对实现这一结果起到重要的作用，但“政府这只手”也不可缺少，因为它能保证稳定。
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