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矩提高加速度;电动马达的绿色形象的机会,提供家庭应急备用电源,以及潜在的汽车到网格应用。另类的商业模式,如电池租赁,也值得进一步考虑,因为他们可能有助于减轻车辆的巨大增量成本,并鼓励混合动力汽车购买者把重点放在长期的成本节约潜力。
4结论
本文介绍了成本(车辆购置成本和能源成本)和比较福利(减少石油消费的PHEVs)相对于混合电动汽车和简历。根据研究结果,是一种混合动力汽车,混合动力汽车的设计范围十分广泛,成本和效益大大不同谱。此外,混合动力汽车的成本效益方程是相当敏感的一系列因素。特别是,电池的成本,燃料成本,车辆性能和驾驶习惯有一个很大的影响相对价值PHEVs。面对庞大的变异,而在这些因素的不确定因素,因此很难预测为PHEVs未来潜力进入市场,减少石油消费的车队。
然而,对于PHEVs可能减少每车石油消费显然是非常高的。在裁减45%以上都可以使用的PHEV20或更高的设计。与此相比与30%的最高混合电动汽车的估计,但有利的减少,这很可能是一种混合动力汽车电池容量增加将导致汽车成本大幅递增,即使在长期任期。对于在本研究中,美国零售价3000美元的费用预计为1的情况估计中型轿车混合动力汽车。相比之下,一个中型PHEV20和PHEV40长期增量成本估计为8,000美元和11,000美元分别。不知道未来的成本石油,这是无法确定未来经济的PHEVs。但似乎有可能,根据这项研究的结果,这将是很大的挑战,证明PHEV的资本成本溢价的降低能源成本寿命仅依据。其他奖励和商业模式可能需要建立一个有吸引力的混合动力汽车驾驶者的价值主张。然而,大油气PHEVs还原
电位提供了重大的国家利益,并提供强大的为政府支持的理由,以加快混合动力汽车技术的部署。
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY
ANDREW SIMPSON
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Abstract
Plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs) have emerged as a promising technology that uses electricity to displace petroleum consumption in the vehicle fleet.However, there is a very broad spectrum of PHEV designs with greatly-varying costs and benefits. In particular, battery costs, fuel costs, vehicle performance attributes and driving habits greatly-influence the relative value of PHEVs. This paper presents a comparison of the costs (vehicle purchase costs and energy costs) and benefits (reduced petroleum consumption) of PHEVs relative to hybrid-electric and conventional vehicles. A detailed simulation model is used to predict petroleum reductions and costs of PHEV designs compared to a
baseline midsize sedan. Two powertrain technology scenarios are considered to explore the near-term and long-term prospects of PHEVs. The analysis finds that petroleum reductions exceeding 45% per-vehicle can be achieved by PHEVs equipped with 20 mi (32 km) or more of energy storage.However, the long-term incremental costs of these vehicles are projected to exceed US$8,000, with near-term costs being significantly higher. A simple economic analysis is used to show that high petroleum prices and low battery costs are needed to make a compelling business case for PHEVs in the absence of other incentives. However, the large petroleum reduction potential of PHEVs provides strong justification for governmental support to accelerate the deployment of PHEV technology.
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