美联储资产负债表继续扩张

The Federal Reserve's enormous balance sheet is growing, even after having accomplished some of its major goals. It isn't likely to stop soon, either.

The Fed is due to provide its weekly balance-sheet update after the market closes on Thursday. Recently, the assets held by the Fed have crept up to $2.2 trillion, the highest since the depths of the financial crisis a year ago.

The balance sheet has more than doubled since just before the crisis began. It swelled first thanks to the Fed's alphabet soup of lending programs and then to its massive purchases of Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities and the debt of government-backed mortgage agencies.

This debt-gathering frenzy had two goals: rescue the financial system and ease the sting of a deep recession.

With the financial system once again apparently in fine fettle, and economists declaring that the recession ended in June, it is reasonable to ask why the balance sheet is still growing.

Some observers warn that the bulging balance sheet will lead to an eruption of hyperinflation, based on economist Milton Friedman's assertion that 'inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.'

The Fed's rising balance sheet has pushed the U.S. monetary base -- which includes bank reserves and hard cash -- to nearly $2 trillion. U.S. banks have excess reserves of more than $1 trillion. Both eye-watering figures are near records set earlier in November. The Fed is also due to update these numbers on Thursday afternoon.

For better or worse, however, this money flood that worries inflation hawks hasn't been flowing into the real economy where it could alter the inflation outlook.

The Fed's 'beige book' compilation of economic anecdotes, released Wednesday, described a credit market in which lenders are still reluctant to lend and few borrowers are demanding loans.

'The balance sheet hasn't directly helped the guy on street,' says David Ader, head of government-bond strategy at CRT Capital. 'The banks are a Hoover Dam on its liquidity.' That is in part why the recovery is still anemic, as evidenced by 10.2% unemployment and still-shaky housing -- giving the Fed room and reason to keep money easy.

尽

管美联储(Federal Reserve)已经实现了一些重要目标，但它的巨额资产负债表仍在扩张，也不太可能很快停下来。

按计划，美联储将在周四市场收盘后公布最新的每周资产负债表。最近，美联储的总资产已经上升到2.2万亿美元，为一年前金融危机最严重时期以来的最高水平。

美联储的资产规模已经达到了危机发生前夕的两倍多。其膨胀的原因，先是美联储推出的名目繁多的贷款项目，后来又有美联储大规模购买国债、抵押贷款支持证券和政府支持房贷机构债务的举措。

大量积累这些债务资产有两个目标：救援金融体系，减轻经济深度衰退的影响。

在金融体系再度显得身强体壮、经济学家宣称衰退已在6月份结束的情况下，人们有理由问，美联储的资产负债表为什么还在膨胀。

一些观察人士警告，根据弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)“无论何时何地，通货膨胀都是一种货币现象”的论断，美联储资产负债表的扩张将会导致恶性通货膨胀的爆发。

美联储资产负债表的扩张推动美国的货币基础（包括银行准备金和现金）达到接近2万亿美元的水平。美国银行业的超额准备金超过了1万亿美元。这两个让人不堪重负的数据都接近早前在11月创下的纪录。周四下午，美联储也将公布这些方面的最新数据。

但无论是好是坏，这些让通胀强硬派担忧的现金洪流并没有流入实体经济，这种情况可能改变通胀前景。

美联储周三发布的印象式描绘经济形势的“黄皮书”显示，在信贷市场，贷款机构仍然不愿意放贷，需要贷款的借款人数量也不多。

CRT Capital国债策略部负责人阿德(David Ader)说，资产规模增加并没有直接惠及普通人，银行是其流动性的“胡佛大坝”。

一定程度上因为这个原因，经济复苏依旧乏力，这可以从高达10.2%的失业率和依旧脆弱的楼市中看出。这让美联储有了保持宽松货币环境的空间和理由。