曼昆经济学读后感

天早晨看到搜狐新闻说，北京市政府已经明令禁止未封顶楼房的个人贷款，这就是行政手段，但是该文章又特别提到银行的观望，尤其国有四大银行似乎可以打打擦边球，这就是上述的球员裁判的又一个表现。不管怎么说，ZF 目前还没走到断臂的那一步。所以我遗憾他们动手控制的太早了，现在的局面还在他们的控制之内。

事情看起来很糟糕，可是每个人都的确能感受到这个国家经济仍在上升，仍然是繁荣的局面，老百姓的收入状况从总体上来看在稳步提升。这为什么？我想起亚当·斯密在《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》中提到当时英国面临的同样的局面时说过（大意），这个国家之所以在不断前进，人民生活状况不断在改善，不是因为国家政策的英明，而完全是因为该国家人民的勤劳，不仅抵消了那些失误政策的负面效应，而且能有少量盈余。而在目前的中国，老百姓的负担恐怕比十七十八世纪的英国老百姓的负担要沉重得多。

曼昆经济学原理阅读笔记（三）

第八条原理：A COUNTRYS STANDARD OF LIVING DEPENDS ON ITS ABILITY TO PRODUCE GOODS AND SERVICES

“The relationship between productivity and living standards also has profound implications for public policy.

Productivity 定义：the amount of goods and services produced from each hour of a workes time

Because lower investment today means lower productivity in the future, government budget deficits are generally thought to depress growth in living standards.”

在亚洲，生产率最高的几个国家当数新加坡，韩国，日本。而韩国人跟日本人又被公认为世界上工作最为勤奋的国家。高生产率加高的工作小时数，这样的国家，如何能落后？相比之下，中国大城市的年轻人，工作也相当勤奋，就业压力和生活压力迫使他们拼命工作，北京上海深圳这些城市的发展速度也不可能不快。政策的倾斜使社会中的稀缺资源（人力是其中最为稀缺的）集中供应了这些城市，其发展速度焉能不快？使资源得到合理的分配，使收入得到合理的分配，这是政府现在迫切要做的事。

政府增加财政预算的赤字，就是政府要从市场中多拿走一部分钱，意味着市场失去了原本可用于生产的一部分钱，这就要威胁社会生活水准的提高。如果政府拿这些钱集中做了经济上的投资，比如在北京扶持了某些高新企业，投资了固定资产，那么北京的人均生活水平将被大大提高，而外地则相反。如果政府拿这些钱砸在了水里，比如修了国家大剧院，修了世纪坛，或者拿这些钱去填补亏空或支持腐败成本，那么整个社会的生活水平都要受到影响。这可以解释为什么看起来大家都在拼命工作，GDP 也在噌噌往上涨，而我们的生活水平却没有以与之相应的节奏上涨。

第九条原理：PRICES RISE WHEN THE GOVERNMENT PRINTS TOO MUCH MONEY（政府印制了过多的钞票时会造成价格上涨）

“inflation（通货膨胀）的定义：an increase in the overall level of prices in the economy

What causes inflation? In almost all cases of large or persistent inflation, the culprit turns out to be the same—growth in the quantity of money.”

通货膨胀是抵消人们努力工作的成果的罪魁祸首，而造成通货膨胀的原因则是政府印制了过多的钞票。我们可以比较容易解释的目前通货膨胀状况的一个原因是：政府在固定资产尤其房地产也投入过分，造成了银行资金的短缺，而解决的办法则是加大钞票的印刷量。可以理解最近的关于 ZF 加紧收紧银根的消息，正是要设法回收资金，减少钞票的过度印刷，从而控制通胀。这个过程不可能很快，至少要一年后，才能初步看到成效，而这还要取决于 ZF 的决心和力度。

第十条原理：SOCIETY FACES A SHORT-RUN TRADEOFF BETWEEN INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT

“Because prices are sticky, various types of government policy have short-run effects that differ from their long-run effects. When the government reduces the quantity of money, for instance, it reduces the amount that people spend. Lower spending, together with prices that are stuck too high, reduces the quantity of goods and services that firms sell. Lower sales, in turn, cause firms to lay off workers. Thus, the reduction in the quantity of money raises unemployment temporarily until prices have fully adjusted to the change.

The tradeoff between inflation and unemployment is only temporary, but it can last for several years. The Phillips curve is, therefore, crucial for understanding many developments in the economy. In particular, policymakers can exploit this tradeoff using various policy instruments. By changing the amount that the government spends, the amount it taxes, and the amount of money it prints, policymakers can, in the short run, influence the combination of inflation and unemployment that the economy experiences.”

在 ZF 抑制通货膨胀的短期内会造成失业率的增加。当然，如果 ZF 声明说他们成功实现了所谓的软着陆，那意味着通货膨胀得到抑制的同时没有造成失业率大幅增加和其他负面影响。这谈何容易。以上第二段关于 ZF 抑制通胀的一些常见手段很值得玩味。

曼昆经济学原理阅读笔记（四）

第一个经济学模型：循环流成图（Circular-flow Diagram）

定义：circular-flow diagram - a visual model of the economy that shows how dollars flow through

markets among households and firms.

是资源和货币在市场中循环流动的简单图表。

第二个经济学模型：生产可能性曲线（production possibilities frontier）

定义：a graph that shows the combinations of output that the economy can possibly produce

given the available factors of production and the available production technology.

微观经济学（microeconomics）：the study of how households and firms make decisions and how they interact in markets. 宏观经济学（macroeconomics）：the study of economy-wide phenomena, including inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.

曼昆关于人与人之间的相互依赖（Interdependence）关系的精妙描述：

Every day you rely on many people from around the world, most of whom you do not know, to provide you with the goods and services that you enjoy. Such interdependence is possible because people trade with one another. Those people who provide you with goods and services are not acting out of generosity or concern for your welfare. Nor is some government agency directing them to make what you want and to give it to you. Instead, people provide you and other consumers with the goods and services they produce because they get something in return.

可以以这段话为例应用到不同场合来解释我们原本以为需要在形而上层面才能解释的问题。

曼昆经济学原理阅读笔记（五）

比较优势原理

概念：

Absolute Advantage(绝对优势): the comparison among producers of a good according to their productivity.

opportunity cost(机会成本): whatever must be given up to obtain some item.

comparative advantage(比较优势): the comparison among producers of a good according to their opportunity cost.

机会成本和比较优势之间的差异造就了贸易上的收益。曼昆的例子：

SHOULD TIGER WOODS MOW HIS OWN LAWN?

Tiger Woods spends a lot of time walking around on grass. One of the most talentedgolfers of all time, he can hit a drive and sink a putt in a way that most casualgolfers only dream of doing. Most likely, he is talented at other activities too. For example, let’s imagine that Woods can mow his lawn faster than anyone else. But just because he can mow his lawn fast, does this mean he should?

To answer this question, we can use the concepts of opportunity cost and comparativeadvantage. Let’s say that Woods can mow his lawn in 2 hours. In that same2 hours, he could film a television commercial for Nike and earn $10,000. By contrast,Forrest Gump, the boy next door, can mow Woods’s lawn in 4 hours. In thatsame 4 hours, he could work at McDonald’s and earn $20.

In this example, Woods’s opportunity cost of mowing the lawn is $10,000 andForrest’s

opportunity cost is $20. Woods has an absolute advantage in mowinglawns because he can do the work in less time. Yet Forrest has a comparative advantagein mowing lawns because he has the lower opportunity cost.

这算是比较优势原理在微观经济学领域应用的例子。比较优势一定是存在的，所以人们只要从事相互间的交易，就一定能从中相互得利。在自由贸易的条件下，人们的商业贸易往来，只有一方得利的情形是罕见的。这就是为什么经济学家们要一致主张自由贸易的原因，这也是为什么我们的国家要积极的参与世贸组织的谈判，争取加入 WTO 的原因。加入 WTO，意味着与他国贸易往来时，双方都会降低或免去进出口关税，消除贸易壁垒，从而使商品的价格降低，最终使两国的消费者得利。而使消费者能够买到尽可能价格低的商品，则是商业的根本目的。

斯密在其《国民经济的性质和原因的研究》中以英国为例在这方面的分析很经典。比如政府的某些看似聪明的为保护本国某项商品而设置高关税，借以阻止外国廉价质优的同类商品进来，以为是保护了本国人民的利益。但实际上呢，一来这种关税抬高了商品的价格，而使消费者不得不多掏腰包，二来这种保护实际上是仅使国内生产该商品的商人得利，并且在这种情况下他们会设法持续提高高价质劣的此种商品给消费者，从而长期损害消费者的利益。

富国与穷国的贸易，在自由公平的贸易条件下，不见得是穷国受损害，相反，因为比较优势原理，是双方互惠的。伍兹和其邻居小孩的例子很好的说明了这一点。无论如何，有需求才会有贸易。如果我们国内的消费者有需要购买美国商品的需求，那么就有使这一交易自由进行的必要。可以假设，如果一个国内消费者希望购买一部手机，而在他面前只有两种选择，一种是性能差的国货，一种是性能好的外国货，那么出于保护该国货的目的而提高对外国手机的关税的做法以阻止消费者购买外国手机的行为就是对消费者的利益的侵犯。这样的行为除了使消费者多掏了腰包外，并没有给国家和社会带来什么特别的好处。因为外国手机如果和中国手机一样在中国卖，交同样的税给中国政府，那么保护国产手机企业的意义在何处？仅仅是让生产手机的商人得利！另外一种情况，国家为扶持某些被认为有前途的行业而向该行业注入资金或奖励金的做法，也与此类似，是养肥了少数人而损害了多数人利益的愚蠢行为。在市场中，资源自然会流向那些有利可图的行业，没有利益的行业资本自然不会进入，何须外力介入。政府的扶持和奖励的做法，除了使该行业的少数人获利并损害了纳税人的利益之外，没有更积极的意义。

正如现在美国政府经常祭出的对华纺织品反倾销政策，就是一个对美国消费者来说有损害的政策。因此最多也只是嚷嚷一下而已，不能长期有效地实行下去。该政策在其他政治领域的作用，才是其目标所在。但是这等于要美国民众来负担这份额外的政治成本。

曼昆的结论：

The principle of comparative advantage shows that trade can make everyone betteroff. You should now understand more fully the benefits of living in an interdependenteconomy. But having seen why interdependence is desirable, you mightnaturally ask how it is possible. How do free societies coordinate the diverse activitiesof all the people involved in their economies? What ensures that goods andservices will get from those who should be producing them to those who shouldbe consuming them?